Our analysis suggests a structural shift in consumption during the 1960s. Our analysis is informed by our reading of the theoretical and empirical literature on the design of labor market policies and institutions in advanced economies. Relaxing the identical slope assumption reveals interesting sector specific characteristics. This article discusses the problem of obtaining short-run and long-run elasticities of energy demand for each of 49 states in the United States using data for 21 years. External shocks have a greater effect on the more volatile B-rated bonds.
Is discord among forecasters associated with lower forecast accuracy? We also show how the extent of diversification changes if account is taken of the political risk attached to suppliers; the size of the importing country; and transportation risk. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. This paper examines the forecasts of the Federal Reserve and compares our results with those that Jansen and Kishan published earlier. The problem is that once you have gotten your nifty new product, the measuring energy security loungani prakash joutz frederick l cohen gail gets a brief glance, maybe a once over, but it often tends to get discarded or lost with the original packaging. Copyright 2002 by Scottish Economic Society. We have used a proxy variable, urbanization, to capture economic development characteristics and changes in electricity-using capital stocks not explained by income. Achieving both types of flexibility while protecting workers and maintaining incentives for workers and firms to invest in existing relations, is not that simple, and the design of labor market institutions faces delicate trade-offs.
Then a model is developed to provide energy policy makers with an analytical framework for understanding the relationships between the solid waste industry and the waste to energy industry. Since 2000 the decline for winter only use has accelerated, decreasing 13. To their credit, most countries mounted a strong three-part policy response to try to minimize these costs. Further evidence of this comes from provincial data: richer provinces tend to have smaller Kuznets elasticities than poorer ones. We also show how the extent of diversification changes if account is taken of the political risk attached to suppliers; the size of the importing country; and transportation risk. Trade economists do not yet have a unified theory of why gravity models should work--and the situation is worse for asset flows.
The trend or Kuznets elasticity is about 0. This is consistent with the intuition that sectoral shocks cause workers to engage in time-consuming moves across industries in their searches for work. The dominant factors explaining the increase in market share are trade relationships with fast growing countries and regionalized production in the export sector. Error correction models are formulated to model the short-run dynamics of different segments of the market. Our main finding is that contractionary monetary policy shocks increase income inequality, on average. We provide cross-country evidence on the relative importance of cyclical and structural factors in explaining unemployment, including the sharp rise in U. Viewed from the perspective of the energy-importing countries as a whole, there has not been much change in diversification in oil supplies over the last decade, but diversification in sources of natural gas supplies has increased steadily.
Housing cycles and their impact on the financial system and the macroeconomy have become the center of attention following the global financial crisis. First, the dispersion of forecasts is correlated positively with the average forecast error for all forecast horizons. The Phillips curve depends on growth in the domestic economy excess capacity, differential growth between foreign output and domestic output, and on the surprise depreciation of the real exchange rate. We construct equipment stock indices and estimate the model for 1949—1993. In the 1950s and 1960s most of these forecasts and analyses were generated by simultaneous equation econometric models. We provide evidence that in countries with greater restrictions on capital mobility, a given reduction in the inflation rate is associated with a smaller loss in output.
We investigate the effects of temporal aggregation on the contribution of these shocks to business cycle fluctuations. You can help correct errors and omissions. And unemployment is likely to reduce social cohesion, a cost that all will bear. We organize our discussion around two concepts: micro flexibility, namely the ability of the economy to allow for the reallocation of workers to jobs needed to sustain growth; and macro flexibility, namely the ability of the economy to adjust to macroeconomic shocks. We document the considerable cross-country heterogeneity in the extent of diversification.
Typically, deterministic trends have been used to capture technological growth. Germany's export market share increased since 2000, while most industrial countries experienced declines. We conclude with a discussion of the macroeconomic implications of house price corrections. Broadly speaking, the response had three parts: i support aggregate demand through monetary and fiscal policy actions; ii ease the pain in labor markets through short-time work programs and provision of unemployment insurance benefits; iii accelerate jobs recovery through the provision of subsidies of various kinds. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labor markets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.
Contents: Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; 1. There are significant differences across countries in how they respond to the global cycle as advanced economies appear to be more sensitive to global recessions than are developing economies. The article presents in a unified framework the classical, empirical Bayes, and Bayes approaches for deriving these estimators. Our results provide evidence for the theoretical predictions of the positive minimum wage-employment relationship in a monopolistic labor market. Thus the quality of forecasts for many of these countries can be significantly improved if forecasters pay more attention to news originating from outside their respective countries. Evidence from data over the past 30 years shows that consolidation lowers incomes in the short term, with wage-earners taking more of a hit than others; it also raises unemployment, particularly long-term unemployment. Measuring Energy Security Loungani Prakash Joutz Frederick L Cohen Gail can be very useful guide, and measuring energy security loungani prakash joutz frederick l cohen gail play an important role in your products.
The objective is to develop two simulations analyzing how changes in electricity prices and warmer weather affect electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. We focus on five themes that are important for policymakers and researchers alike: the domestic and international factors driving housing booms and busts, the relevance of the housing sector for the real economy, how monetary policy should react to housing booms and busts, how housing and mortgage finance reform could affect financial stability, and the broad lessons learned for macroeconomics and macroprudential policy. How well do forecasters predict rare events such as recessions or crises? First, recessions generally arrive before the forecast. Some tips for forecast users are provided. This is due to the changing structure of food and agricultural economies and the important signals the forecasts provide to farmers, processors, wholesalers, consumers, and policymakers. We conclude that there is evidence of systematic bias and of forecast smoothing of the inflation forecasts.
Second, the impact on inequality is also stronger when liberalization is followed by a financial crisis. This paper develops stylized facts about the inflation process in developing countries, focusing particularly on the relationship between the exchange rate regime and the sources of inflation. Two different approaches are compared. The nanotechnologies that have undergone the most development are identified using patent citation data and co-citation patterns of patents are examined to define clusters of related nanotechnologies. Primero, los flujos internacionales significan menor riesgo para los propie-tarios del capital, que pueden diversificar sus créditos e inver-siones. We find that public capital accounts for about half of the post-1973 productivity slowdown, but only plays a minor role in the partial recovery of labor productivity growth since the mid 1980s.